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Twitter’s Tweetminster uses Tweets for General Election prediction

[ 0 ] April 2, 2022 | Debbie Turner

For those of you who don’t already know, there is a Twitter political group called Tweetminster. It seems as though the results cast for polls in the world outside of social networking very strongly echo the results of analysis by Tweetminster, with the General Election polls so far predicting a possible hung parliament.

Tweetminster was established in order to bring a whole new audience to politics and its aim at the moment is to follow Twitter and what’s being said online to see if people mentioning particular candidate’s names can help to forecast the winners and losers on Election Day.

Yesterdays YouGov poll put the Tories on 39% and Labour on 32% but the latest Tweetminster figures put the Conservatives on 34% with Labour slightly ahead on 35%, and the Lib Dems trailing with 22%. Already over 2 million Tweets have been analysed for the study and Tweetminster is using data from all 376 constituencies on Twitter.

It looks at candidates who are using Twitter, mentioned constituencies, and particular constituencies with high profile cabinet or shadow cabinet members. It also studies the key marginals and will look at the influence of the TV leader’s debates when they occur. Some of the most influential tweeter candidates based on number of mentions and personal tweets include David Miliband, Harriet Harman, Lib Dem’s Nick Clegg and Tory chairman Eric Pickles.

What do you think of the way Tweetminster uses Tweets to analyse and predict the General Election results? It seems a rather ingenious method to me of gauging public opinion, but how do you feel about it?


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Category: Politics

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